Emva kokuba i-OPEC + igqibe nge-5 ka-Okthobha ukunciphisa imveliso yeoli ngezigidi ezi-2 zemiphanda ngosuku ukuqala ngoNovemba, ukubheja kwe-bullish kunye ne-bearish kwimarike yekamva yeoli yanda kwakhona."Ichatshazelwa yi-OPEC + ukusikwa okunzulu kutshintsho olukhulu olukhulu olutsha, imarike yeoyile ekrwada yekamva ngoku yimali eqikelelwayo yokubuyela kwintengiso yeoyile ekrwada yexesha elizayo yenkunzi yenkomo, okwesibini lulwazi oluninzi lwentlangano izithuba ezimfutshane zeoyile ekrwada, kuba baqonda ukuba njengoko okoko amaxabiso eoyile ephantsi, i-OPEC + inokuqhubeka nokucutha imveliso, de ixabiso libuyele kwinqanaba labo lokwamkelwa. ”Umthengisi we-oyile ekrwada uthe kuhlalutyo lwentatheli.
Emva kokuba i-OPEC + igqibe nge-5 ka-Okthobha ukunciphisa imveliso yeoli ngezigidi ezi-2 zemiphanda ngosuku ukuqala ngoNovemba, ukubheja kwe-bullish kunye ne-bearish kwimarike yekamva yeoli yanda kwakhona."Ichatshazelwa yi-OPEC + ukusikwa okunzulu kutshintsho olukhulu olukhulu olutsha, imarike yeoyile ekrwada yekamva ngoku yimali eqikelelwayo yokubuyela kwintengiso yeoyile ekrwada yexesha elizayo yenkunzi yenkomo, okwesibini lulwazi oluninzi lwentlangano izithuba ezimfutshane zeoyile ekrwada, kuba baqonda ukuba njengoko okoko amaxabiso eoyile ephantsi, i-OPEC + inokuqhubeka nokucutha imveliso, de ixabiso libuyele kwinqanaba labo lokwamkelwa. ”Umthengisi we-oyile ekrwada uthe kuhlalutyo lwentatheli.Ngokolwazi lwamva nje oluvela kwiKomishoni yokuRhweba i-Commodity Futures, izithuba ezinde zabaxeli-zintengi kwi-Brent kunye ne-WTI ekrwada yekamva inyuse iikhontrakthi ezingama-53,179 ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo ukuya kuma-373,467 ukusuka nge-4 ka-Okthobha, ezona ziphezulu kwiiveki ezili-11 ezidlulileyo.“
Nangona kunjalo, iNgxowa-mali yeqhinga le-CTA kunye nengxowa-mali yotyalo-mali lwemveliso ayikabuyela kwimakethi ye-oyile ekrwada, ishiya ukonyuka kwexabiso le-oyile ukusuka ekucuthekeni okubalulekileyo kwe-OPEC +.Umrhwebi we-oyile ekrwada yekamva alibuthuntu.Ikhontrakthi ephambili ye-WTI yenyuka ukusuka kwi-85.4 yeedola ukuya kwi-93.3 i-barrel emva kokuba i-OPEC + yanciphisa imveliso nge-2 yezigidi zemibhobho ngosuku, kodwa yabuyela malunga ne-$ 89 njengoko i-index ye-dollar idibene kwiintsuku ezimbini ezidlulileyo, i-Datayes ibonise."Uloyiko lwedola eyomeleleyo sesona sizathu sokuba kutheni imali yeoyile ende yemveli, efana neemali zeCTA kunye neemali zemveliso, ziye zacotha ukuthatha ithuba le-OPEC + kunye nokunciphisa imveliso ukubuyela kwimakethi yexesha elide le-oyile."UHelima Croft, intloko yeqhinga lemveliso yehlabathi kwi-BC Capital Markets.Okwangoku, balindele ukubona ukuba ngubani ophumelele idabi phakathi kwe-OPEC kunye nedola eyomeleleyo ukugqiba isigqibo sotyalo-mali esilandelayo.U-Zou Zhiqiang, umphandi kwiZiko le-Middle East Studies kwiYunivesithi yaseFudan, ukholelwa ukuba i-Saudi Arabia kunye namanye amazwe e-OPEC + anqume ukunciphisa ngokukhawuleza umthamo wemveliso nge-2 yezigidi ze-b / d, ngokukodwa ngokusekelwe kwiminqweno yabo yelizwe.Kungenxa yokuba badinga amaxabiso e-oyile ukuze bahlale phezulu ukuze babanike ingeniso ethe kratya yokuxhasa uqoqosho lwabo.Kodwa akukho mathandabuzo ukuba oku kuyonakalisa umdla waseMelika.Ngenxa yokuba i-US isebenzisa idola eyomeleleyo ukuthoba amaxabiso eoyile, ngaloo ndlela inciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US.
Abaphathi abaninzi bengxowa-mali yaseWall Street hedge baxelele iintatheli ukuba kusesekuseni kakhulu ukuba baqikelele ngesiphumo sedabi elitsha lelungelo lokumisela amaxabiso kwimarike yeoli ekrwada.Kodwa into ecacileyo kukuba i-OPEC + ayizukuwanyamezela amaxabiso e-oyile aphantsi ixesha elide ukujongela phantsi umdla wayo ongundoqo.Oko kukhokelele inani elikhulayo labatyali-mali ababheja kwidola bebetha i-highs entsha ukuba bayeke ukwenza ukubheja okukhulu kumaxabiso e-oyile aphantsi, beqaphela imingcipheko ekhulayo yomgaqo-nkqubo.Iintatheli zifunde ukuba nge-5 ka-Okthobha, i-OPEC + yagqiba ekubeni inciphise imveliso yeoli ekrwada ngeebhari ezi-2 zezigidi ngosuku, nto leyo eyavuselela uluvo lokuthenga kwimarike yekamva yeoli ekrwada yehlabathi."Kwixesha elidlulileyo, amandla exabiso kwimarike yexesha elizayo yeoli yayiphantse yalawulwa yimali enkulu, eyayiqhutywa ngokupheleleyo kukuthengiswa okufutshane kwamaxabiso eoyile ebusweni bokuphakama okutsha kwidola, kungakhathaliseki ukuba utshintsho kwi-oyile kunye nemfuno esisiseko. ”Abarhwebi bexesha elizayo le-oyile ekrwada baxelele iintatheli.Oko kukhokelele abatyali-mali abaninzi abakholelwa ukuba amaxabiso eoyile akaxatyiswanga ukuba angahlali.Ngokombono wakhe, oku koko kanye okufunwa ngabalawuli.Kungenxa yokuba idola eyomeleleyo igcina amaxabiso eoyile esezantsi, nto leyo enokuthi ithobe kakhulu uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US.Nangona kunjalo, ngesigqibo se-OPEC + sokucutha imveliso ngezigidi ezi-2 zemiphanda ngosuku, imeko yangoku yemali enkulu elawula amaxabiso exesha elizayo leoli “iyekiwe”.Kule veki iphelileyo, inani elikhulayo leemali eziqikelelwayo neziqhutywa kumsitho ziye zangenelela ukuzingela amaxabiso aphantsi, zityhala ikontraki ephambili ye-WTI ngasemva ngaphezulu kweedola ezingama-90 umphanda.Umboniso wedatha ye-Tonly Datayes, i-capital capital esezantsi yekamva leoli ekrwada ukuthenga isantya esiphezulu, ukunyuka ukusukela ekupheleni kukaSeptemba, xa uqikelelo lwentengiso ye-OPEC +, okanye imveliso enkulu, yenza ukungena kwenkunzi eqikelelwayo, eyona nto iqhuba ixabiso lekhontrakthi ye-WTI yexesha elizayo leoli ekrwada. ngaphandle kanye ngaphezu kwe-13%, kunye nenkunzi eninzi eqikelelwayo "ngokungahoywa" idola ukuba iqulethe isiphumo samaxabiso eoli, Gxumela kwaye uthenge ixabiso leoli.Ngokucacileyo, isalathiso sedola siye sahlehla kuphela ukusuka kwi-114.78 ukuya malunga ne-113.12 kwezi veki zimbini zidlulileyo, ngelixa ikontrakthi ephambili ye-WTI ibuyele umva ukusuka kwi-76.25 yeedola ukuya kwi-89 yeedola ngomphanda.“Emva koku, ingxowankulu eqikelelwayo ngakumbi nangakumbi kukubheja ukuba ikamva leoli liya kubuyela emva kwi-95 yeedola ezili-100 zeedola / i-BBL ngokuzinzileyo ukusuka kwidola eyomeleleyo.Kuba yile nto i-OPEC + ifuna ukuyibona. ”
Uhlalutyo lwe-oyile ye-oyile ekrwada luthe.Bayayazi kananjalo ukuba i-OPEC +, ejongene nefuthe elityumzayo ledola eyomeleleyo kumaxabiso eoli, inokuthatha amanyathelo anje ngokucuthwa kwemveliso enkulu ukuxhasa amaxabiso eoli, ukwenza isicwangciso sokuthenga ezantsi sibe nempumelelo ngakumbi.Iintatheli nazo zafunda ukuba kwiveki ephelileyo, ubhejo oluninzi kwi-Federal Reserve ukuqhubeka nenqanaba le-hawkish lokunyuka kwamaziko otyalo-mali nawo ngokuzolileyo ajoyine inkampu yokuthenga ezantsi ukuthenga amaxabiso eoli.Ngenxa yokuba bakholelwa ukuba i-Fed kuya kufuneka iqhubeke nesicwangciso sayo sokuhamba ngesantya se-hawkish ukuba nje ukubuyiswa kwamaxabiso e-oyile kugcina ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu e-US, bavuzwa ngembuyekezo engaphezulu kwe-fatter kwi-market-rate derivatives market.Kutheni iinkunzi ze-oyile zemveli ziye zacotha ukungena Kuyaphawuleka ukuba iimarike zezimali zikwaxhalabile malunga nokuba kungakanani ukonyuswa kwemveliso ye-OPEC+ ye-200-bpd eyakuba kumaxabiso eoli."Kwiintsuku ezimbini ezidlulileyo, idola eyomeleleyo ibuyile, ithumela amaxabiso amdaka e-WTI ehla emva kokubetha i-93 yeedola ngomphanda."Abarhwebi bexesha elizayo le-oyile ekrwada baxelele iintatheli ngokungafihlisiyo.Isizathu sesokuba nje ukuba i-capital capital yabona i-index ye-dollar ibuyele, yandisa ngokukhawuleza indawo yayo emfutshane kwixesha elizayo le-oyile ekrwada, ekhokelela ekwehleni okuhambelanayo kwamaxabiso eoli.Ngokombono wakhe, xa kujongwe ukuba imali eyinkunzi ithatha malunga ne-30% yomthamo wokurhweba kwimakethi yeoli ekrwada, ukonyuka kwexabiso le-oyile ukusuka kwi-OPEC + yokuthotywa kwemveliso kungenzeka "iphile ixesha elifutshane" ukuba inkunzi ye-oyile ende ekrwada yemveli, enjalo. njengenkxaso-mali yeqhinga le-CTA kunye neengxowa-mali zemveliso, ayibuyeli kwimarike yekamva yeoli ekrwada.
Intloko yengxowa-mali yeqhinga le-CTA yaseWall Street ixelele iintatheli ukuba nangona bezisoloko zikholelwa ukuba amaxabiso eoli akaxatyiswanga, basalumke kakhulu xa bejongana namathuba okuthenga inzuzo aziswa kukucuthwa kwemveliso ye-OPEC + enkulu.Banexhala lokuba i-OPEC + ayinakukwazi ukuphinda ithethe kwixabiso leoli.Ingxaki kukuba ikamva leoli ekrwada lixatyiswa ngeedola, kwaye nje ukuba i-Fed iqhubeka nokunyusa izinga lenzala kwaye ithumela idola ukuba irekhode phezulu, amaxabiso eoli ekrwada ekugqibeleni aya kujongana noxinzelelo olukhulu olusezantsi.“Ngaphezu koko, isiphithiphithi sobonelelo lwamandla eYurophu sikhokelela kuqoqosho olukhawulezayo lokudodobala koqoqosho lwaseYurophu kunye nokuhla okuqatha kwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-euro, olukhokelele ekunyukeni okungephi kwesalathiso sedola, nto leyo ebeka uxinzelelo oluthe chatha kumaxabiso e-oyile. ”Wathetha.Azikho ezininzi iimali zeqhinga le-CTA kunye neengxowa-mali zemveliso ezibuyele kwizikhundla ezinde kwixesha elizayo le-oyile ekrwada, esinye isizathu kukuba "babekulumkele" ukuthenga amathuba amatsha ngenxa yelahleko ethe kratya kumaxabiso eoli.
Intatheli iyabaqonda abaninzi, nokuba ingxowa-mali yeqhinga le-CTA kunye ne-oyile ephantsi yokungena kwimali yempahla yorhwebo, banayo imali nayo ilinganiselwe, esinye sezizathu ezibalulekileyo, ukunyuswa kwamaxabiso enzala ngokukhawuleza kukunyusa iindleko ezikhulayo, ukwenza imali. Inkxaso-mali ekhoyo ixinzelele kakhulu, kwaye kunzima ukuba nefuthe eliphezulu ekunyukeni kwexabiso leoli."Esi sisizathu esibalulekileyo sokuba kutheni iimali ezininzi zeemveliso kunye neeCTAs zikhetha ukuphoswa leli thuba lokuthenga inzuzo kunokuthatha umngcipheko, zikhetha ukulinda isiphumo phakathi kwe-OPEC + kunye nedola eyomeleleyo ngaphambi kokuba zenze isigqibo sotyalo-mali esilandelayo."“Utshilo uStephanie Lang, igosa eliyintloko lotyalo-mali eHomrich Berg.
“Imathiriyeli ekrwada yelaphu lethu elingalukwanga, i-polypropylene, yimveliso yokwenziwa kwepetroleum.Ixabiso le-oli ekrwada lamazwe ngamazwe liya kuchaphazela ngqo ixabiso lekamva lezinto zethu ezikrwada, kwaye lichaphazele ixabiso lamalaphu ethu angalukwanga.Nceda ulungiselele uluhlu lwempahla kunye nesicwangciso sokugcwalisa kwangaphambili. ”Utshilo uMason eHenghua Nonwoven.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-14-2022
